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Northern Cyprus: When big politics suddenly gets very close

Perhaps the Cyprus question isn't coming through the door we expected. Not just through a UN meeting, a new document, and not just through the old words of federation, division, guarantees, and political equality. It may well be returning through the larger context of global politics.






A few days ago, we asked here whether peace might need a form this time that we don't yet know. It's not a certain prediction, but rather a cautious reflection on an island whose old language of solutions, after years of division and pain, has often become too limited for the reality it now faces. We would like to continue this line of thought today.


In Ankara, NATO is discussing security. Donald Trump is meeting with Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. In Washington, the topic of F-35 fighter jets for Turkey is being raised again. Meanwhile, in Israel, concerns are growing about a militarily stronger Turkey. And in Europe, Nikos Christodoulides and Ursula von der Leyen are coordinating their discussions on the Cyprus issue and EU-Turkey relations. In-Cyprus/Phileleftheros reports today that Christodoulides and von der Leyen plan to meet in Paris to discuss the Cyprus issue and EU-Turkey relations . Is this already a reaction to decisions already made between the US and Turkey?


And right in the middle of it all lies the island of Cyprus with its long-standing issues. Northern Cyprus and the Republic of Cyprus, and with them the points of contention: the buffer zone, Varosha, Pyla, Girne, Lefkoşa, Nicosia. These are places where high politics never stays merely high-level, but eventually becomes tangible on people's doorsteps, at border crossings, in family stories, and in conversations over coffee.


That's what makes these days so special. It 's not as if a solution has suddenly appeared on the table. There's no confirmed and published new plan. No signed roadmap, and no guarantee that all these talks will actually lead to peace. But there is a growing momentum that shouldn't be overlooked.

The EU is taking a closer look. Turkey is being re-evaluated in Ankara as a strategic NATO actor. The US is again discussing a military rapprochement with Ankara.


At the same time, Israel warns against a shift in the regional balance, because the long-term plans of Greater Israel are truly incompatible with Turkey's long-term plans for a new Ottoman Empire. It's understandable that this is a highly contentious issue.


The United Nations itself is simultaneously keeping the formal framework for the Cyprus question open. This may not result in a simple exchange, but perhaps a new balance will emerge. The fact that Turkey might move closer to the Western security table is not automatically good or bad for Cyprus. It depends on what is made of it. If Ankara becomes stronger in terms of security policy without any progress on the Cyprus issue, this will be perceived as a risk in Nicosia, Athens, and Tel Aviv. However, if this strengthening of the security landscape becomes part of a broader order, it could also open a door.


There will certainly be no straightforward deal along the lines of: F-35s for Turkey in exchange for Cyprus for NATO. Diplomacy is rarely that simple. And officially, people won't be spoken of in that way. But perhaps it will be more like this: Turkey will regain closer ties with the West, more military cooperation, more recognition of its strategic role. In return, the expectation grows that Ankara will become more predictable: within NATO, towards Israel, towards the EU, and perhaps also on the Cyprus issue.


Axios reports that Trump is signaling openness to F-35 sales to Turkey. The New York Post writes that Trump wants to lift defense sanctions against Ankara, thus paving the way for new arms cooperation. At the same time, there is resistance from Israel and parts of the US Congress. This shows that this is not just about aircraft. It's about trust, power, regional order, and the question of who will have what influence in the Eastern Mediterranean in the future.


For Cyprus, this is indirectly very direct.

Because Turkey is not just any neighbor. It is a guarantor power, militarily present in the north, the protecting power of the Turkish Cypriot side, and also a NATO member. Greece is likewise a guarantor power and a NATO member. Great Britain is a guarantor power and, with its bases on the island, a permanent part of the security architecture. Israel, the USA, and the EU view Cyprus not only as an island, but as a crossroads between Europe, the Middle East, energy, migration, and security. Each party, therefore, has significant interests in Cyprus, even if they don't explicitly state them in every public announcement.

Perhaps therein lies a new opportunity.

A solution for Cyprus should no longer be built solely on old concepts. It could require a form that rethinks political equality, international legality, property, security, and everyday life. A form in which Turkish Cypriots do not feel they are losing their dignity. And in which Greek Cypriots do not feel that justice, memory, and loss are simply being ignored.


This is a thought experiment. But it's not just any thought experiment. Because even the local press in the north senses this tension. Yenidüzen reports today that dialogue has increased, but the deadlock remains when it comes to confidence-building measures. Kıbrıs Postası echoes UN Secretary-General António Guterres's line that confidence-building measures cannot replace negotiations. This is important. Small steps are valuable, but they are insufficient if the major political issue remains unresolved.


And then there's everyday life. While Ankara is discussing NATO, F-35s, and the world order, Yenidüzen reports a hunger threshold of 43,469 TL and a poverty threshold of 234,462 TL for a family of four in the north. At the same time, many people are keeping a close eye on the minimum wage, exchange rates, prices, rents, and bills. This, too, is part of the Cyprus question.


Peace must not sound like a deal struck over people's heads. It must be a tangible part of life. It must make people feel that things are getting easier: less fear, more freedom, more legal certainty, more economic freedom, more connection.


Perhaps that's precisely the point we mustn't lose sight of these days. High-level politics can open doors. It can create pressure. It can shift old obstacles. It can create a framework in which something becomes possible that previously seemed impossible.


But true peace between people doesn't only arise there. It arises where people can meet again without immediately playing a political role. Where a house is not just property, but a memory. Where a village is not just on a map, but in the heart. Where Turkish and Greek Cypriots still know that this island was and can be more than its division.


Perhaps the big question, then, is not just whether Ankara, Washington, Brussels, Nicosia, and Tel Aviv will find a new order. Perhaps the question is also: Can this new order finally serve the people of Cyprus? Not exploit them. Not postpone them. Not treat them as arguments in foreign strategies. But rather help them find their way out of this long limbo.


If Turkey becomes more closely tied to the West, it could be dangerous for Cyprus. Or it could be an opportunity. If the EU takes its role more seriously, Nicosia could gain more security. Or the lines could harden. If the US exerts more influence, things could change. Or new dependencies could emerge.

None of this is decided. But for the first time in a long while, it seems as if several keys are in the lock at once. UN. EU. Turkey. USA. Israel. NATO. Perhaps nothing will open, but perhaps it will.


And if something does open up, then please let it be for the people of this island, so they can breathe more freely again. For Northern Cyprus. For the Republic of Cyprus. For everyone who loves this island.


All love

Samira & Marten



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