Cyprus, day three: What is being created beneath the sea while peace is being talked about above

Yesterday we told you about the school in Esentepe and why the Turkish Cypriot side is approaching new rounds of talks with some caution. Today, on the third day of his visit, António Guterres sat down with Tufan Erhürman and Nikos Christodoulides for the first time as a trio. His initial outcome sounded rather sobering: He is prepared to convene a new meeting in the 5+1 format, together with the guarantor powers Turkey, Greece, and Great Britain – but only after sufficient preparatory work has been done. He did not specify a date (AP, UN Web TV).

Those familiar with our article on the Guterres Models will expect precisely this restraint. The larger-scale approach will only emerge once smaller steps have proven viable. However, what particularly strikes us today is something that hardly any headline specifically mentions: almost simultaneously with the visit, new energy corridors have been developed on both sides of the island. And these corridors perhaps reveal more about the political landscape than it initially appears.

Two lines, one sea

On July 10, Turkey and Northern Cyprus signed a memorandum of understanding for a gas pipeline across the Mediterranean. It is planned to run from Anamur on the Turkish coast to the Teknecik power station near Kyrenia, a distance of 101 kilometers, 97 of which will be underwater. It will consist of two pipes, each 22 inches in diameter. Imagine the route: from the Turkish Riviera, it crosses the open sea and comes ashore where the coastal road east of Kyrenia gradually transitions into a more rural landscape – precisely the area through which the road to Esentepe also runs.

Turkish gas is initially intended to secure electricity and heat for Northern Cyprus and reduce its dependence on liquid fuels. However, one detail warrants closer examination: the pipeline is designed for bidirectional flow. Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar stated that gas could later flow from Cyprus to Europe via Turkey (Anadolu Agency). Julian Bowden of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies points out that the planned capacity significantly exceeds Northern Cyprus's needs – an indication that a potential export function is being considered once policymakers and operators reach an agreement (Anadolu Agency).

Meanwhile, a second route is taking shape south of the island. Eighteen days after the Turkish-North Cypriot memorandum, Eni and TotalEnergies announced their final investment decision for the Kronos gas field, containing more than three trillion cubic feet of gas. Production is slated to begin in 2028, with transport via the existing Zohr facilities in Egypt and from there onward to Europe as liquefied natural gas (LNG) (Eni, TotalEnergies). Kronos is not a sudden development: the field was discovered in 2022, further evaluated in 2024, and in February 2025, Cyprus, Egypt, and the companies involved had already agreed on the future transport route. The decision of July 28th thus concludes a multi-year process; it is not the result of a single visit.

The government of the Republic of Cyprus has explicitly condemned the Turkish-North Cypriot memorandum (Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Cyprus). This publicly presents two firmly opposing positions: on the one hand, sovereign energy security for Northern Cyprus, and on the other, the internationally recognized jurisdiction of the Republic of Cyprus over its maritime territories. No joint agreement between North and South is known, nor is there any evidence for one – anyone claiming that Guterres helped negotiate the Kronos Agreement during his visit is confusing temporal proximity with causation.

The silent question behind the loud rejection

And yet, one observation remains that is difficult to ignore: Guterres would hardly be preparing a 5+1 meeting if he hadn't discerned any common ground between the parties in recent weeks. He knows the failure of Crans-Montana from his own experience and won't lightly invite everyone to the table again. Perhaps the real agreement doesn't lie in a document at all, but in a quiet coexistence: Northern Cyprus is building its energy future with Turkey, the Republic of Cyprus with Egypt, Eni, and TotalEnergies – and as long as neither side effectively hinders the other's infrastructure, there remains room for both simultaneously.

This would not contradict the Guterres model we described the day before yesterday, but rather be its logical continuation: first small, self-contained steps that build trust before the larger solution is even up for discussion. The only difference is that this time the steps don't consist of crossings or solar installations in the buffer zone, but of pipes and investment decisions.

What this could mean for people on both sides

Political equality is a powerful concept that often feels very concrete for Turkish Cypriots: Will they be involved in decisions that affect their future, or merely informed about them? If both energy pathways are allowed to coexist without either side having to abandon its partners, the result could be more than just cheaper electricity in Kyrenia or export revenues in the south. It could create the possibility of future joint projects in electricity, water, or renewable energy, without each individual decision having to wait for a complete political solution.

We don't want to overstate this interpretation. It's a hypothesis, based on the timeline, the bidirectional interpretation of the Northern Line, and Guterres's willingness to adopt a new format – nothing more. A document confirming such a tacit agreement doesn't exist and probably never will, even if it does.

What we will be paying attention to in the coming days

Whether this observation will lead to more will be revealed by small signals: Will political rejection persist while projects on both sides continue unhindered? Will Holguín receive a concrete task for the next meeting after this visit? And will a working group on energy or revenue sharing eventually appear on the agenda? Equally important to us would be a visible answer to the question of how the Turkish Cypriot community can participate in the island's economic opportunities – a joint fund or guaranteed utility rights would be a first, tangible indication.

Guterres departs without leaving a finalized plan. The goal is 5+1 talks (Model V). Perhaps two separate paths under the same sea will converge long before the political establishment officially announces it. Or, to put it another way, if the people and politicians on the island can't yet reach an agreement, perhaps the energy supply on the seabed off Cyprus can?

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Sources: AP, UN Web TV, Anadolu Agency (technical data), Anadolu Agency (export function), Eni, TotalEnergies, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Cyprus, and our own articles from July 27 and July 26.